The Real Price of Imported Oil Revisited
重新审视了1978-1982年间14个石油进口国的实际进口石油价格变化，发现尽管名义价格相对稳定，但实际价格持续上升至1982年中，且各国涨幅差异显著。
In a 1980 Energy Journal article, an examination was made of the effects of inflation and exchange rate adjustments on imported oil prices in some selected countries (Dunkerley and Jankowski, 1980). This showed that inflation and exchange-rate adjusted) prices, after rising threefold between 1973 and 1974, generally declined between 1974 and 1978. This decline was due to high rates of inflation and in some cases the weakness of the dollar in terms of local currency. A similar examination of the period following the second oil price rise between 1978 and 1980 shows somewhat different results. In this period, despite relative stability in nominal prices, the real prices of imported oil continued to rise through mid-1982. The movement in real prices of imported oil is given in Table 1 for 14 oil-importing countries, seven OECD members, and seven developing countries. These indices were derived by converting the average dollar price of Saudi Arabian oil (f.o.b. Ras Tanura) for each year to national currencies at the average exchange rates prevailing during that year. These prices were deflated by the Consumer Price Index in each oil-importing country. The same calculations were done for May 1982, the last month for which data were available. The resulting prices are listed in index form with 1974 equal to 100. Countries are ordered from top to bottom according to how much oil import prices have increased since 1974, with those facing the largest real price increases at the top. Not surprisingly, changes in the indices reflect the general movement of world oil prices with steep increases in 1974 and 1979-80. However, real oil import prices have increased much more rapidly in some countries than others, with Korea experiencing a 66.7-percent price increase since 1974 compared with India's 157.4-percent rise. In addition, other contrasts are reflected in the column showing the percentage change since 1978. Some countries for example, Turkey, Kenya, and West Germany have been hit with price increases approximately twice the size of those felt in such nations as the Philippines and Jamaica during this period. Many of those in the first group faced declining real prices after the first oil price rise.