A Nonfinancial Business Success versus Failure Prediction Model for Young Firms
研究开发并测试了一个基于非财务因素（管理变量）的模型，用于预测年轻企业的成功或失败，并采用配对样本设计，比较成功与失败企业的初始资源差异。
Prospective entrepreneurs are concerned about the chance of success for their proposed business. A success versus failure prediction model can help the prospective entrepreneur more accurately assess the probability of the proposed business s success. Success versus failure prediction research also benefits existing entrepreneurs, those who assist, train, and advise them, those who provide capital for their ventures, suppliers, and public policy makers (Altman 1983; Ballantin, Cleveland, and Koeller 1992; Cameron, Kim, and Whetten 1987; D'Aveni 1989; Dugan and Zavgren 1989; Koh and Killough 1990; Pech and Alistair 1993; Storey, Keasey, Watson, and Wynarczyk 1987). While there has been much prior work in this area, much is left to do. As Gaskill, Van Auken, and Manning (1993) state: There are many studies to better understand business success versus failure. However, there are many questions still to be resolved that warrant additional exploration ... previous studies do not provide a comprehensive or unified explanation for small firm failure ... comparisons are needed between successful and failed small business owners. Prior empirical studies of failure have concentrated almost exclusively on financial ratio data, though studies of failure usually cite managerial variables as being critical (Scherr 1989). The usefulness of ratio-based business failure prediction models has been questioned (Alves 1978; Corman and Lussier 1991; Gilbert, Menon, and Schwartz 1990; Shelton 1986; Stockton 1989; Sommers and Koc 1987). For example, El-Zayaty (1986) found ratio models to be poor predictors of bankruptcy: in his research of 132 businesses predicted to fail, only 5 were discontinued over a five-year period. Storey et al. (1987) indicated that qualitative data can provide at least as good predictions as traditional financial ratios. This study is not based on financial ratios, but on the quantitative and qualitative managerial factors that may contribute to success or failure. To date, the author has found only a few major nonratio empirical studies: Cooper et al. (1990, 1991); Reynolds (1987); and Reynolds and Miller (1989). While these studies are pathbreaking, more research is needed. For example, the Reynolds and Miller model cannot predict failure of a business before it starts because the age of the business and the first year sales are factors in the model to predict failure. The Cooper et al. study provides a point of departure for this research. The major differences between this study and the Cooper et al. study are: (1) their sample includes businesses 1 to 3 years old whereas this sample includes ages 1 to 10; (2) their sample was limited to members of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) while this sample is not; (3) they do not survey failed businesses while this study does; and (4) their sample does not include matched pairs whereas this design does. They first surveyed existing firms; after a year or longer, some of the firms failed. At that time, they compared the responses of the failed firms and the surviving firms to analyze the differences without ever questioning the failures to ask them why they failed. Further, there were no controls for size, industry, or location. The matched pairs design of this study avoids comparing larger businesses to smaller ones, retailers to manufacturers or construction companies, and businesses from different locations. PURPOSE OF THE STUDY The purpose of this research was to develop and test a generic nonfinancial model that will predict a young business s success or failure. The study also answers the question, Do successful and failed businesses start with equal resources? This study adopts Dun & Bradstreet's (1993) definitions of failure and discontinuance. Business failures are defined as firms involved in court proceedings or voluntary actions which result in losses to creditors. Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 companies are both considered failures due to losses to creditors. …