Evaluation of the Subjective Probabilities of Survival in the Health and Retirement Study
分析健康与退休研究中受访者对自己活到75岁或85岁的主观概率判断，发现这些判断在平均水平和与其他变量的相关性上都接近实际死亡率，表明主观概率可用于不确定性下的跨期决策模型。
In the Health and Retirement Study respondents were asked about the chances they would live to 75 or to 85. We analyze these responses to determine if they behave like probabilities of survival, if their averages are close to average probabilities in the population, and if they have correlations with other variables that are similar to correlations with actual mortality outcomes. We find that generally they do behave like probabilities and that they do aggregate to population probabilities. Most remarkable, however, is that they covary with other variables in the same way actual outcomes vary with the variables. For example, respondents with higher socioeconomic status give higher probabilities of survival, whereas respondents who smoke give lower probabilities. We conclude that these measures of subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision-making under uncertainty.