The Interest Rate Elasticity of Mortgage Demand: Evidence from Bunching at the Conforming Loan Limit
利用利率在合规贷款限额处的不连续跳跃导致的贷款申请聚集现象，估计出30年期固定利率抵押贷款利率每上升1个百分点，首次抵押贷款需求下降2%至3%，其中三分之一被二次抵押贷款抵消，总债务仅降1.5%至2%。
This paper provides novel estimates of the interest rate elasticity of mortgage demand by measuring the degree of bunching in response to a discrete jump in interest rates at the conforming loan limit—the maximum loan size eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The estimates indicate that a 1 percentage point increase in the rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reduces first mortgage demand by between 2 and 3 percent. One-third of this response is driven by borrowers who take out second mortgages, which implies that total mortgage debt only declines by 1.5 to 2 percent.