前景理论、心理账户与彩票组合的聚合与分离评估差异

Prospect Theory, Mental Accounting, and Differences in Aggregated and Segregated Evaluation of Lottery Portfolios

Management Science · 2001
被引 21
人大 A+FT50UTD24ABS 4*

中文导读

通过理论分析和实验研究发现,彩票序列的呈现方式(聚合显示整体分布 vs 分离显示各彩票)对接受率的影响并非普遍现象,而是取决于彩票的具体参数,这与现有文献观点不同。

Abstract

If individuals have to evaluate a sequence of lotteries, their judgment is influenced by the presentation mode. Experimental studies have found significantly higher acceptance rates for a sequence of lotteries if the overall distribution was displayed instead of the set of lotteries itself. Mental accounting and loss aversion provide an easy and intuitive explanation for this phenomenon. In this paper we offer an explanation that incorporates further evaluation concepts of Prospect Theory. Our formal analysis of the difference in aggregated and segregated portfolio evaluation demonstrates that the higher attractiveness of the aggregated presentation mode is not a general phenomenon (as suggested in the literature) but depends on specific parameters of the lotteries. The theoretical findings are supported by an experimental study. In contrast to the existing evidence and in line with our theoretical results, we find for specific types of lotteries an even lower acceptance rate if the overall distribution is displayed.

前景理论心理账户聚合与分离评估彩票组合