Retrospective Versus Panel Data in Analyzing Lifecycle Events
利用美国年轻女性纵向调查数据，比较了回顾性婚姻史与面板数据在记录婚姻事件上的差异，发现两者在事件日期上高度一致，但回顾性数据存在系统性回忆误差；两种数据在估计初婚风险模型上表现相当，对离婚和再婚模型的结果也定性相似。
This paper compares lifecycle data from a retrospective marital history with those derived for the same individuals from panel information, utilizing data from the Young Women's cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Work Experience (NLS) which was initiated in 1968. The results indicate that when a marital event is reported in both sources there is substantial agreement about the date of the event. The errors are systematic and seem to relate to factors that increase the difficulty of recall in retrospective histories. The two data sources seem to do equally well in estimating hazard rate models of first marriage and give qualitatively similar results for hazard rate models of divorce and remarriage.