Money, Income, Prices and Interest Rates
发现，加入1980年代数据后，货币与名义收入或实际收入、价格之间的显著关系减弱甚至消失；但商业票据利率与国库券利率的利差对未来实际收入变动有显著预测力。
Including data from the 1980s sharply weakens the postwar time-series evidence indicating significant relationships between money (however defined) and nominal income or between money and either real income or prices separately. Focusing on data from 1970 onward destroys this evidence altogether. Evidence indicating cointegration of real income and real money balances, with due allowance for the effect of interest rates, also deteriorates when the sample extends through the 1980s. A positive finding is that the spread between the commercial paper rate and the Treasury bill rate consistently contains highly significant information about future movements in real income. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.