Cracks on the Demand Side: A Year of Crisis in Theoretical Macroeconomics
论证1981年货币主义衰落、财政政策效力动摇，理论宏观经济学陷入危机，对关注宏观经济学说史和政策争论的读者有参考价值。
For those who measure the greatness of a year by the assumptions and isms that have perished within its span, 1981 will be judged one of the great ones in theoretical macroeconomics. It is the year, I shall argue, of the demise of monetarism; if not the demise, then at least its demotion to a temporary position pending a more promising replacement. But monetarism was not the only fatality of 1981. It is also the year in which the efficacy of fiscal policy was shaken to its foundations. It is conceivable that the idea of stimulating (or contracting) employment by means of fiscal policy measures may yet be reborn in some sturdier theoretical frame. But, for now, the old Keynesian notion of fiscal stimulus is so beset by doubts that fiscal policy, if not truly incapacitated, is in a deactivated status. Thus theoretical macroeconomics is today in a state of crisis. The hope, of course, is that the crisis signals a transition, in a direction not yet foreseen, to some Eriksonian stage of new competence and restored confidence.