Educational Attainment, Industrial Structure, and Male Earnings through the 1980s
利用1974、1980和1988年人口调查数据，分析1973-1987年间美国男性平均收入下降和低收入比例上升的原因，发现教育回报、工作经验和行业就业模式的变化是主要因素，尤其对黑人群体的影响显著。
Sorensen, and Robert Wood provided comments on earlier drafts. Any opinions expressed are those of the authors alone. Between 1973 and 1987, men's average earnings declined and the percentage of men with low earnings (defined as annual earnings less than $12,000 a year) increased for whites, blacks, and Hispanics. We estimate regression models for the level and distribution of male earnings for each of these three groups using data from the 1974, 1980, and 1988 March Current Population Surveys. Much of the decline in mean earnings and the increased incidence of low earnings can be attributed to changes in the returns to education, experience, and industry of employment--changes that we attribute to demand-side factors, such as changes in technology. While a substantial portion of the increased incidence of low earnings can be attributed to similar demand-side changes, shifts in industrial employment patterns (such as the shift from durable manufacturing to service-sector jobs) had large effects only on the mean and probability of low earnings among blacks between 1973 and 1979. We also find that educational upgrading over the 15-year period between 1973 and 1987 kept