Accounting for Changes in the U.S. Budget Deficit
分析了2009年后美国预算赤字下降的原因，其中约一半归因于临时因素，如美联储上缴利润和两房股息，并预测长期赤字将因人口老龄化和债务利息扩大。
however, the deficit had fallen to where it was no longer unusually large compared with deficits during the previous three decades. While the cyclical recovery in economic activity has played a role in this im-provement, about half of the decline since 2009 is due to an array of temporary factors, particularly Federal Reserve remittances to the U.S. Treasury, dividend payments from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the unwinding of one-time policies intended to stimulate economic activity following the Great Recession. The pace of improvement over the next few years, however, is likely to slow as these temporary factors fade and economic growth proceeds closer to trend levels. Over the longer term, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects the deficit to widen as an aging population, ris-ing health care costs, and interest payments on an elevated level of debt place increasing demands on fiscal resources. The first section of the article reviews a general accounting frame-