Macroeconomic behavior during periods of speculative pressure or realignment: evidence from Pacific Basin economies
用非参数检验描述了太平洋盆地经济体外汇市场投机压力期间的典型事实，发现较大预算赤字和央行国内信贷增长与贬值相关，表明扩张性或紧缩性政策可能加剧投机压力。
This paper uses nonparametric tests to provide a description of the \\"stylized facts\\" associated with episodes of speculative pressure in foreign exchange markets in Pacific Basin Economies and to see whether these \\"stylized facts\\" appear to be broadly consistent with the alternative explanations for such episodes suggested in the theoretical literature. ; The empirical results are mixed, but some are nonetheless suggestive. Larger budget deficits and growth in central bank domestic credit appear to be associated with episodes of depreciation rather than episodes of appreciation or periods of tranquility, indicating that unusually expansionary or contractionary policies may contribute to speculative pressures in foreign exchange markets. There also is some evidence that episodes of speculative pressure may arise when economic conditions make it costly for the government to maintain a stable exchange rate.