On the Uncertainty About the Total Economic Impact of Climate Change
用投票计数法估计了全球变暖总经济影响的概率密度函数，发现升温超过3°C很可能产生净负影响，超过7°C可能导致总福利损失，并估算了2015年碳的社会成本约为29美元/吨碳，每年约增长2%。
This paper uses a vote-counting procedure to estimate the probability density function of the total economic impact as a parabolic function of global warming. There is a wide range of uncertainty about the impact of climate change up to 3°C, and the information becomes progressively more diffuse beyond that. Warming greater than 3°C most likely has net negative impacts, and warming greater than 7°C may lead to a total welfare loss. The expected value of the social cost of carbon is about $29/tC in 2015 and rises at roughly 2% per year.