The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions
构建了一个可计算的最优迁移计量模型，重点研究预期收入对迁移决策的影响，利用美国青年纵向调查数据发现，州际迁移显著受收入前景驱动，包括地区平均工资差异和当前收入不佳时的迁移倾向。
This paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice) and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on white males with a high-school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.