LIVING RATIONALLY UNDER THE VOLCANO? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HEAVY DRINKING AND SMOKING*
利用健康与退休研究数据，比较前瞻性模型与短视模型对中老年男性重度饮酒和吸烟行为的解释力，发现前瞻性模型拟合更好，且对70岁以上男性的预测也更准确。
This study investigates whether models of forward‐looking behavior explain the observed patterns of heavy drinking and smoking of men in late middle age in the Health and Retirement Study better than myopic models. We develop and estimate a sequence of nested models that differ by their degree of forward‐looking behavior. Our empirical findings suggest that forward looking models fit the data better than myopic models. These models also dominate other behavioral models based on out‐of‐sample predictions using data of men aged 70 and over. Myopic models predict rates of smoking for old individuals, which are significantly larger than those found in the data on elderly men.