WAS THE GOLD STANDARD REALLY DESTABILIZING?
通过估计美国金本位时期的DSGE模型，并反事实模拟泰勒规则，发现金本位时期的高波动主要来自其他冲击，而非金本位制度本身，且泰勒规则并未改善福利。
SUMMARY This paper investigates the extent to which the high macroeconomic volatility experienced in the classical Gold Standard era of US history can be attributed to the monetary policy regime per se as distinct from other shocks. For this purpose, we estimate a small dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the classical Gold Standard era. We use this model to conduct a counterfactual experiment to assess whether a monetary policy conducted on the basis of a Taylor rule characterizing the Great Moderation data would have led to different outcomes for macroeconomic volatility and welfare in the Gold Standard era. The counterfactual Taylor rule significantly reduces inflation volatility, but at the cost of higher real‐money and interest‐rate volatility. Output volatility is very similar. The end result is no welfare improvement. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.