Nonparametric Counterfactual Predictions in Neoclassical Models of International Trade
提出一种无需对偏好和技术设定函数形式的非参数方法，用于预测贸易成本变化对贸易要素含量、要素价格和福利的反事实影响，并以中国融入世界经济为例展示其可行性。
We develop a methodology to construct nonparametric counterfactual predictions, free of functional form restrictions on preferences and technology, in neoclassical models of international trade. First, we establish the equivalence between such models and reduced exchange models in which countries directly exchange factor services. This equivalence implies that, for an arbitrary change in trade costs, counterfactual changes in the factor content of trade, factor prices, and welfare only depend on the shape of a reduced factor demand system. Second, we provide sufficient conditions under which estimates of this system can be recovered nonparametrically. Together, these results offer a strict generalization of the parametric approach used in so-called gravity models. Finally, we use China's recent integration into the world economy to illustrate the feasibility and potential benefits of our approach.