A Structural Approach to the Economic Base Multiplier
改进了Tiebout以来的地方经济凯恩斯模型，提出存在两种概念上不同的乘数，并引入简单的供给面，以解决传统模型忽视供给弹性、参数漂移等缺陷。
Recent economic base multiplier literature is largely empirical, relying implicitly for theoretical justification on a model of the local economy that is little changed since Tiebout (1962). The few who have addressed this theory list several shortcomings (Heilbrun 1981; Pleeter 1980; Hirsch 1973; Pfister 1976). Criticisms fall into four categories: (1) failure of the model to reckon with supply inelasticities; (2) drift over time of estimated parameter values due to evolving local economies; (3) focus on exports to the exclusion of other autonomous sources of demand; (4) weaknesses that any Keynesian consumption function exhibits. In addition, estimated economic base multipliers exhibit wide variability. This paper modifies the Keynesian style model of the local economy with several goals in view. The first is to develop an implication of Tiebout's work that suggests two conceptually distinct multipliers exist for local economies. Second, the paper introduces a simple supply side to the model without abandoning its essential demand driven nature. The third aim is to calculate