How Do Data Revisions Affect the Evaluation and Conduct of Monetary Policy
许多经济数据会因信息完善和方法改进而被修订，这种数据不确定性使货币政策的评估和实施变得复杂，历史政策行动可能因数据修订而被重新评价。
Many economic data series are revised as more comprehensiveinformation becomes available and as methodologiesimprove. Even the latest available data are subject to uncer-tainty, and at some point historical data may be replaced by more accurately measured observations. Because monetary policy decisions are made with an eye to the state of the economy, data uncertainty com-plicates the evaluation and conduct of monetary policy. Revisions to data series complicate the evaluation of historical policy actions. Policy actions taken based on data available at the time may differ considerably from recommendations based on revised data (Orphanides 2001). Policy settings that seemed appropriate when they were made may be regarded as mistakes when viewed with the revised data. Thus, to understand the policy concerns of the past, it is important to know the data policymakers were observing at the time (Runkle; Croushore and Stark 2000). Sharon Kozicki is a vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Matthew Cardillo, an assistant economist at the bank, helped prepare