The output-inflation trade-off in the United States: has it changed since the late 1970s?
研究美国产出与通胀之间的权衡关系是否自1970年代末以来变得更有利，发现权衡程度与之前大致相同，并探讨如何设计政策以减少进一步反通胀带来的产出损失。
In recent years, the Federal Reserve has become more explicit in stating a goal of gradually reducing inflation to near zero rtes. An important consideration in seeking lower inflation is the transition cost (lost output and employment) incurred in the process. In this paper we ask whether the output-inflation trade-off in the U.S. is any more favorable now than it was in the high-inflation environment of the late 1970s and early 1980s. Our empirical estimates suggest that this trade-off is about the same as it was in the earlier period. In light of these results, we consider ways in which policies might be designed to reduce the amount of lost output associated with further disinflation.