《危险边缘》中的自然实验

A Natural Experiment in "Jeopardy!"

American Economic Review · 2016
被引 191
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

利用电视游戏节目《危险边缘》作为自然实验,研究不确定性下的行为与策略选择,发现多数玩家理性下注,但复杂问题中最佳反应失败率上升,且风险厌恶程度接近中性。

Abstract

This paper uses the television game show 'Jeopardy!' as a natural experiment to analyze behavior under uncertainty and the ability of players to choose strategic best-responses. The results suggest that, while most players bet in a rational manner, the failure rate for choosing best-responses increases as the betting problem grows more complex and that players' choices are affected by the 'frame' of the problem. However, suboptimal betting tends to decrease as inferior players are driven from the game. The data also allow for estimation of the extent of risk aversion; the results imply near risk-neutrality. Copyright 1995 by American Economic Association.

自然实验风险决策最佳反应风险中性