A Reconsideration of the Causal Relationship between Money and Prices in Sweden, 1871-1970
使用格兰杰因果检验方法，重新审视瑞典1871-1970年货币扩张与通货膨胀的因果关系，发现对于实行固定汇率的小型出口经济体，通胀导致了货币扩张。
Since the appearance of Granger's article on causality in 1969, increasing attention has been paid to statistical methods capable of identifying the direction of causality between two different sets of data which are hypothesized to be related in some manner. Summarized in a fairly recent survey article by Pierce & Haugh (1977), a subset of these methods is used here to check the validity of results on the causal relationship between monetary expansion and inflation that were presented in this Journal by Jonung (1976). Our findings confirm the hypothesis that, given a small exportoriented country with a pegged exchange rate, monetary expansion is caused by inflation. While the data used (Swedish data for the years 1871 to 1970) are dominated by periods with fixed exchange rates, we could find no statistically significant indication of a reversal in the direction of causality during periods when the exchange rate was allowed to float. We begin this note by presenting our theoretical position. After' examining Jonung's methods and results, we conclude with a short presentation of our own methods and results.