The Boom and Bust in Information Technology Investment
研究了1990年代末IT投资繁荣与萧条的原因，发现IT商品价格下降和技术变革是主因，但1999-2000年投资过高源于电信和互联网行业过度乐观，未来技术变革仍将快速推进。
This boom and bust raises some natural questions: what were the reasons for the accentuated swings in growth rates, and, more importantly, what do those reasons portend for the future of IT investment? Much of the increase in IT investment in the late 1990s appears to be attributable to falling prices of IT goods, which in turn is largely attributable to technological change. However, IT investment was much higher in 1999 and 2000 than a model would predict. Another reason for the high growth rates in IT investment was that expectations were too high, especially in two sectors of the economy, telecommunications services and the dot-com sector. Looking ahead, technological change in the IT area will likely continue to move quickly, in large part because large amounts of research and development are being devoted to finding further technological breakthroughs. 1.