In Defense of Base Drift
美联储因允许计算货币总量目标增长路径的基期逐年漂移而受到批评。本文用简单理论模型证明，与价格稳定一致的基期漂移最优程度取决于永久性与暂时性收入和速度扰动的重要性。
The Federal Reserve has been criticized for allowing the base from which it calculates its target growth paths for the monetary aggregatesto drift from year to year in response to past deviations from target.Drift in the base implies that target misses permanently affect the levels of the monetary aggregates. Using a simple theoretical model, this paper shows that the optimal degree of base drift consistent withprice stability depends on the importance of permanent versus transitory income and velocity disturbances. Neither zero base drift nor complete base drift are likely to be compatible with price stability. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.