争端解决机制与战略军事化

Dispute Resolution Institutions and Strategic Militarization

Journal of Political Economy · 2018
被引 41
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究争端解决机制如何通过影响战争惩罚的严厉程度,反而激励军事化,并比较不同调解形式的效果。

Abstract

Engagement in a costly and destructive war can be understood as the punishment for entering into a dispute. Institutions that reduce the chance that disputes lead to war make this punishment less severe. This may incentivize hawkish political choices like militarization, and potentially offset the benefits of peace-brokering institutions. We analyze a simple model in which unmediated peace talks are effective at improving the chances of peace for a given distribution of military strength. But, once the effects on militarization are considered the presence of unmediated talks leads to a higher incidence of war. Not all conflict resolution institutions suffer from this drawback. We identify a form of third-party mediation, inspired by the work of Myerson, and show that it can effectively broker peace in disputes once they emerge, and also minimize the level of equilibrium militarization.

争端解决机制战略军事化第三方调解和平谈判