Explaining the duration of exchange-rate pegs
实证研究了16个拉美国家和牙买加汇率挂钩的持续时间，发现实际汇率、国际流动性、经济开放度、贸易集中度和行政变动显著影响月度贬值概率，且贬值风险在挂钩第一年先升后降。
This paper is an empirical investigation of the duration of exchange-rate pegs in 16 Latin American countries and Jamaica. We identify factors that influence peg duration using logit analysis. The real exchange rate and the level of international liquidity are significant determinants of the monthly likelihood of devaluation. Structural variables, such as the openness of an economy and its geographical trade concentration, and political variables, such as changes in the executive, also significantly affect the likelihood of a devaluation. There is some evidence that the likelihood of a devaluation first rises and subsequently declines during the first year of a peg.