The Farm Economy Turns Down
研究了1991年美国农业经济下滑的原因，主要由于畜牧业利润下降和作物产量平平，但农业整体财务状况仍稳健，预计低迷将持续至1992年。
After more than four years of robust recovery, the farm economy turned down in 1991 and the slump seems likely to continue in 1992. Farm income slipped more than 5 percent due to a drop in livestock profits and just an average year for crop producers. The earnings slide came after farm income posted record highs in three of the past four years. Farmland values stalled in 1991 after four years of solid gains, further underscoring the end of the farm recovery. Despite the backslide in 1991, the farm economy remains on solid financial footing. Farm balance sheets remain healthy after more than five years of high income and debt reduction. Most farm lenders have very few problem loans heading into 1992. And even though farm income may edge a bit lower, crop prices are improving and could soar if exports strengthen or bad weather cuts crop yields. Thus, U.S. agriculture seems likely to endure at least two years of downturn--but is well positioned to do so. THE FARM DOWNTURN OF 1991 The 1991 farm downturn was widely shared in U.S. agriculture, but livestock producers felt the biggest blow. Strong livestock prices were the main strength of farm income the past three years, so a sharp break in cattle and hog prices in late summer hit one of the pillars of the farm recovery. Crop producers, meanwhile, contended with a wet spring and dry summer but managed to harvest average crops overall. As farm income slipped and farmland values stalled, farm balance sheets weakened. A SHARP DROP IN LIVESTOCK PRICES The slump in livestock prices was a tale of supply and demand (Chart 1). (Chart 1 omitted) Meat supplies rose 3 percent to a record high, while consumer demand weakened due to the recession. Consumers shopped for value, but per capita consumption still climbed to a record 215.6 pounds. The drop in cattle and hog prices was especially pronounced. An unusual surge in fed cattle marketings caused cattle prices to fall nearly 15 percent in August before recovering somewhat later in the year. Hog prices fell about a third from summer to fall as producers expanded production after two years of wide profit margins. Beef production increased 1 percent in 1991 amid signs that producers were expanding the nation's cattle herd for the first time in many years. The main reason for the rise in beef output was that producers sent heavier cattle to market. In late spring, feedlot operators began holding back marketings, hoping for higher prices. Soon, a backlog of heavy cattle developed. Prices fell sharply in late summer as producers sent a large wave of cattle to market. By fall, the backlog had been worked off, and prices recovered somewhat. For the year as whole, beef carcass weights averaged almost 700 pounds, shattering the old record. Year-average cattle prices fell in 1991, but not as much as the summer sell-off would suggest. Finished cattle prices climbed to a record high in the first quarter and remained fairly strong through most of the summer. Prices for choice steers at Omaha averaged $75 a hundredweight, down $3.50 from 1990 (Table 1). (Table 1 omitted.)High prices for feeder cattle and huge lossesin the third quarter caused most feedlots to lose money in 1991. Feeder cattle prices were surprisingly strong in 1991, making ranching one of U.S. agriculture's strongest performers for the year. Large financial losses in cattle feeding in the second half of the year pushed feeder cattle prices down only modestly because feeder cattle remained in tight supply. Prices for feeder steers at Oklahoma City averaged $93, up from $92 in 1990. Ranching profits have stayed strong for three to four years. Arise in cattle inventories in 1991, the first increase since 1982, suggests that ranchers are beginning to expand in response to the string of profits. Pork producers expanded aggressively in 1991, boosting pork production 4 percent. Long anticipated, the expansion received a cool market reception. …