Replicating Ricardian Equivalence Tests with Simulated Series
用模拟数据重复标准消费函数对李嘉图等价假说的检验,发现税收对消费影响的估计不稳健,标准检验可能产生矛盾结果,且经常账户与政府预算赤字低相关不能明确支持或否定该假说。
This paper replicates standard consumption function tests of Ricardian equivalence using series generated from a model which nests Ricardian equivalence within a non-Ricardian alternative (due to finite horizons and/or distortionary taxation). The author shows that the estimates of the effects of taxation on consumption are not robust and that standard tests may have weaknesses which can lead to conflicting results, whether Ricardian equivalence holds or not. The simulations also show that no clear conclusions about Ricardian equivalence can be drawn from observing a low correlation between the current account and government budget deficits. Copyright 1997 by American Economic Association.