The great industry gamble: market structure dynamics as a survival contest
将行业动态建模为内生锦标赛，企业投资决定生存概率，形成生存竞赛驱动市场结构变化，模型预测与银行业等实证吻合。
Industry dynamics are studied as an endogenous tournament with infinite horizon and stochastic entry. In each period, firms’ investments determine their probability of surviving into the next period. This generates a survival contest, which fuels market structure dynamics, while the evolution of market structure constantly redefines the contest. More concentrated markets endogenously generate less profit, rivals that are more difficult to outlive, and more entry. The unique steady‐state distribution exhibits ongoing turbulence, correlated exit and entry rates, and shakeouts. The model’s predictions fit empirical findings in markets where firms trade off profits for smaller risk of failure (e.g., banking).