Land Allocation Effects of the Global Ethanol Surge: Predictions from the International FAPRI Model
使用国际FAPRI模型量化生物燃料市场兴起对全球农业的影响，模拟美国、巴西等国乙醇需求变化对主要作物土地分配的冲击，发现巴西甘蔗乙醇对耕地影响小于美国玉米乙醇。
We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on world agriculture using the multimarket, multicommodity international FAPRI model. The model incorporates trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world prices and trade. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil and other countries, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for important crops and countries. The Brazilian ethanol expansion using sugarcane has fewer consequences on existing arable land allocation than the U.S. ethanol expansion does using corn feedstock. <i></i>