Reducing our ignorance about monetary policy effects
指出货币政策的影响并不像商业新闻所说的那样明确，通过五种美国经济模型模拟一次意外紧缩，发现各模型结果差异很大，建议政策顾问应兼收并蓄。
Business news often gives the impression that the effects of monetary policy on the macroeconomy are well understood and predictable. The author of this article, however, believes that, far from sharing such certainty, policymakers and economists alike have knowledge limited by difficulties in sorting out causal factors in economic data. He holds that monetary policy effects are neither well understood nor easily predicted. ; The article presents five models of private and monetary policy behavior in the United States. Identical policy experiments--an unanticipated one-time monetary policy contraction--performed in each model show different qualitative and quantitative effects of policy from one model to the next. The author considers a variety of methods for ranking the models according to their plausibility and suggests that because each model has its limitations, it would be wise for policy advisors to be eclectic in formulating advice.