Should the Fed Take Deliberate Steps to Deflate Asset Price Bubbles
反对美联储主动戳破资产价格泡沫,认为识别泡沫所需信息超出央行能力,且干预可能破坏稳定。
On several occasions over the last few years, various economists and policymakers have expressed the opinion that the stock market was overvalued. They often compared the situation with the 1920s and warned that the U.S. economy was headed for a similar collapse. Some analysts also suggested that the Fed raise interest rates to slow the rate of \\"asset inflation, \\" on the grounds that it would be better to burst a speculative bubble in its early stages than to let it develop and suffer the inevitable crash. This paper takes up the other side of the debate and argues that deliberate attempts to puncture asset price bubbles may well turn out to be destabilizing. ; Identification of asset price bubbles requires more knowledge about asset price fundamentals than central banks possess, and the inability to identify speculative bubbles makes it difficult to take timely and well-measured countervailing actions.