Organic certification, export market access and the impacts of policy: Bayesian estimation of avocado smallholder “times‐to‐organic certification” in Michoacán Mexico
利用墨西哥米却肯州鳄梨小农的有机认证时间数据，用贝叶斯方法分析有机采纳决策，预测不同政策情景下农户进入和退出有机生产的模式。
Abstract This study analyzes organic adoption decisions using a rich set of time‐to‐organic durations collected from avocado small‐holders in Michoacán Mexico. We derive robust, intrasample predictions about the profiles of entry and exit within the conventional‐versus‐organic complex and we explore the sensitivity of these predictions to choice of functional form. The dynamic nature of the sample allows us to make retrospective predictions and we establish, precisely, the profile of organic entry had the respondents been availed optimal amounts of adoption‐restraining resources. A fundamental problem in the dynamic adoption literature, hitherto unrecognized, is discussed and consequent extensions are suggested.