What Predicts a Successful Life? A Life-Course Model of Well-Being
利用英国1970年出生队列数据，发现儿童期情绪健康是成年后生活满意度的最强预测因素，而智力发展预测力最弱；成年期家庭收入仅解释0.5%的幸福感差异，身心健康更为重要。
Policy-makers who care about well-being need a recursive model of how adult life-satisfaction is predicted by childhood influences, acting both directly and (indirectly) through adult circumstances. We estimate such a model using the British Cohort Study (1970). We show that the most powerful childhood predictor of adult life-satisfaction is the child's emotional health, followed by the child's conduct. The least powerful predictor is the child's intellectual development. This may have implications for educational policy. Among adult circumstances, family income accounts for only 0.5% of the variance of life-satisfaction. Mental and physical health are much more important.