Was the Deflation during the Great Depression Anticipated? Evidence from the Commodity Futures Market
利用大萧条时期商品期货价格远高于现货价格的现象，证明当时农产品价格暴跌出乎多数人意料，并据此推断市场对消费者价格和实际利率的预期。
Futures prices were well above spot prices for most commodities during most of the Great Depression; evidently the spectacular declines in agricultural prices caught many people by surprise. Based on the historical correlations between commodity prices and consumer prices, commodity markets anticipated stable consumer prices during the first year of the Great Depression. The dramatic drop in nominal Treasury bill yields, thus, should be read as a drop in ex ante real rates. Later in the Great Depression, markets anticipated deflation, but not as severe as actually occurred. Copyright 1992 by American Economic Association.