The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications
利用美国多个都市区的零售商价格和销量数据，研究发现消费者实际支付的有效价格通胀随失业率上升而显著下降，而标价通胀变化不大，这种差异源于家庭支出在不同零售商间的重新分配，而非促销活动。
We study the cyclical properties of sales, regular price changes, and average prices paid by consumers (“effective” prices) using data on prices and quantities sold for numerous retailers across many US metropolitan areas. Inflation in the effective prices paid by consumers declines significantly with higher unemployment while little change occurs in the inflation rate of prices posted by retailers. This difference reflects the reallocation of household expenditures across retailers, a feature of the data which we document and quantify, rather than sales. We propose a simple model with household store-switching and assess its implications for business cycles and policymakers.