On the Issue of Causality in the Economic Model of Crime and Law Enforcement: Some Theoretical Considerations and Experimental Evidence
探讨在犯罪与执法经济模型中识别因果关系的难题，指出惩罚的严厉性和确定性增加应减少犯罪，而受害风险上升会加强执法，从而影响威慑变量。
The identification of the true causal relationship underlying an apparent empirical association between specific variables of interest is a central issue of concern in all statistical analyses, but especially in social science research where the opportunity to conduct controlled experiments is not available as a rule. In econometric investigations of the incidence of criminal activities the problem concerns, in part, the identification of supply-of-offenses and demand-forenforcement or functions from scatters of observations concerning crime rates and deterrence variables. While an increase in severity and certainty of punishment is expected to cause a reduction in offenses, an autonomous rise in the risk of victimization is expected to increase public and private enforcement and protection activities, and thus the magnitude of deterrence variables, and generally lower the prospects of illegitimate payoffs.'