Production versus Revenue Efficiency with Limited Tax Capacity: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan
研究发展中国家为打击逃税而采用的生产低效税收政策（如最低税制），利用巴基斯坦企业数据发现，营业额税可将逃税减少60-70%，并在不降低总利润的情况下使税收收入增加74%。
To fight evasion, many developing countries resort to production-inefficient tax policies. This includes minimum tax schemes whereby firms are taxed on either profits or turnover, depending on which tax liability is larger. Such schemes create non-standard kink points, which allow for eliciting evasion responses to switches between profit and turnover taxes using a bunching approach. Using administrative tax records on corporations in Pakistan, we estimate that turnover taxes reduce evasion by up to 60-70% of corporate income. Incorporating this in a calibrated optimal tax model, we find that switching from profit to turnover taxation increases revenue by 74% without reducing aggregate profits, despite the production inefficiency that it introduces.