The Real Growth of Chinese Industry Debate Revisited--Reconstructing China's Industrial GDP in 1949-2008--
通过修正实物量序列并考虑替代偏差和增加值率下降，重新估算中国工业真实增长，发现官方数据可能高估了增长。
This study revisits the debate about the real growth performance of Chinese industry by investigating two effects that may affect the Laspeyres quantity index that I constructed earlier (Wu, 1997 and 2002), i.e. substitution bias, known as the Gerschenkron effect, and time-variant value added ratio. Based on a substantially revised and updated time series of major industrial commodities in physical measures, the newly constructed indices with three alternative IO Table weights demonstrate a clear Gerschenkron effect, hence lowering the estimate for China's real industrial growth, and the confirmed declining trend in value added ratio has a further downward adjustment effect on the estimated real industrial growth. In addition, a comparison of my results with the official estimates does not reveal any regularity reflecting quality change that may have been under-measured in the commodity approach.