Is There a Monetary Business Cycle
探讨货币主义观点是否成立，即货币存量波动是否为经济周期的主要来源，并指出理性预期理论、内生货币理论及新数据对货币主义的挑战。
There is a view that monetary policy is effectively summarized by the time path of a single variable, the money stock, and that erratic fluctuations in the money stock generated by erratic policy decisions are a major, even the principal source of business cycle fluctuations. This view, which I will call monetarism, is losing adherents among economists, for several reasons. For one thing, rational expectations theory, having shown how the Phillips curve could emerge as a statistical regularity in an economy where it was not exploitable for policy purposes, can now do the same for Granger causal priority of money and money's strong explanatory power for future movements in real output. Theories of endogenous cyclical variation in money are gaining attention in part because of results which have begun emerging from the data as new statistical techniques are applied to new historical developments. Data from outside the United States or outside the 1950's and 1960's do not fit the predictions of monetarist theory.