价格是对的,但出价对吗?理性决策理论探究

The Price Is Right, but Are the Bids? An Investigation of Rational Decision Theory

American Economic Review · 1996
被引 114
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

利用电视游戏节目《价格猜猜猜》作为实验室,在真实经济激励下检验理性决策理论,发现参赛者策略明显次优,而简单经验法则能更好解释出价模式,且学习能减少策略错误,支持有限理性。

Abstract

The television game show The Price Is Right is used as a laboratory to conduct a preference-free test of rational decision theory in an environment with substantial economic incentives. It is found that contestants' strategies are transparently suboptimal. In response to this evidence, simple rules of thumb are developed that are shown to explain observed bidding patterns better than rational decision theory. Further, learning during the show reduces the frequency of strategic errors. This is interpreted as evidence of bounded rationality. Finally, there is no evidence that a concern for fairness significantly alters bidding behavior. Copyright 1996 by American Economic Association.

理性决策理论有限理性经验法则电视游戏节目