Rising College Expectations among Youth in the United States: A Comparison of the 1979 and 1997 NLSY
比较了1979年和1997年NLSY中15-16岁青少年的大学期望变化，发现种族差异和家庭资源的影响减弱，而性别和家庭结构的影响增强，这些期望主要通过学校同伴、教师质量和学业表现来塑造。
We examine the rise in college expectations among 15- and 16-year-olds in the 1979 and 1997 NLSY. Probit models estimate the effects of gender, race/ethnicity, family characteristics, and local economic conditions on the probability of expecting a college degree. Race/ethnic differences and the influences of family resources and county economic conditions declined between 1979 and 1997. In contrast, girls became more likely to expect a college degree than boys, and family structure grew in importance over time. Family resources and structure appear to shape expectations largely through differences in school peers, teacher quality and interest, and past academic performance.