Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange
研究1980年代初美元预测的系统性偏差，提出交易者理性学习美国货币政策变化但信念调整滞后，模拟表明该模型可解释远期市场约一半的美元低估。
Recent evidence concerning dollar forecasts during the early 1980s have led to assertions that the market was irrational. This paper investigates an alternative interpretation. Following the tightening of the U.S. money market, agents did not immediately believe that the change would persist, but instead learned the shift rationally. Empirical simulations indicate that the model appears consistent with about half of the dollar's underprediction implied by the forward market during the period.