What Makes Voters Turn Out: The Effects of Polls and Beliefs
通过实验室实验检验理性选民理论的基础，发现选民投票倾向随其对偏好优势的预测而增加，且民调不会产生理论预测的负面福利效应，反而导致更多预期多数参与和压倒性选举。
We use laboratory experiments to test for one of the foundations of the rational voter paradigm—that voters respond to probabilities of being pivotal. We exploit a setup that entails stark theoretical effects of information concerning the preference distribution (as revealed through polls) on costly participation decisions. We find that voting propensity increases systematically with subjects’ predictions of their preferred alternative’s advantage. Consequently, pre-election polls do not exhibit the detrimental welfare effects that extant theoretical work predicts. They lead to more participation by the expected majority and generate more landslide elections.