The Balance of Payments and Money Supply Under the Gold Standard Regime: U.S. 1879-1914
构建了一个理论模型，用美国1879-1914年的数据估计国际收支调整机制中实体与货币部门的互动，并评估了不同学派对这一时期货币供给独立性的争论。
This paper analyzes the interaction between the real and monetary sectors via the balance-of-payments adjustment mechanism. An explicit theoretical model is developed and its coefficients are estimated (using two-stage least squares) for the United States during the period 18791914. The model is then synthesized to evaluate the views of Phillip Cagan, Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz on one hand, and Jeff rey Williamson, Robert Mundell, and Moses Abramovitz on the other. The period 1879-1914 in American economic history is of particular interest as it provides an excellent testing ground for theories pertaining to balance of payments and money supply. In this era the U.S. economy developed rapidly under a gold standard regime with little direct government intervention. There are conflicting interpretations of the events of this period with regard to the interaction between the monetary and real sectors. Cagan and Friedman and Schwartz regard the variations in the money supply as independent of the changes in the real sector. Their view can be best summed up in the following passage from Friedman and Schwartz: