Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?
通过动态职业阶梯模型研究美国大衰退期间及之后不同规模雇主的就业再配置,发现职业阶梯在衰退期间停止运作且尚未完全恢复。
We study employment reallocation across heterogeneous employers through the lens of a dynamic job-ladder model, where more productive employers spend more hiring effort and are more likely to succeed in hiring because they offer more. As a consequence, an employer's size is a relevant proxy for productivity. We exploit newly available U.S. data from JOLTS on employment flows by size of the establishment. Our parsimonious job ladder model fits the facts quite well, and implies `true' vacancy postings by size that are more in line with gross flows and intuition than JOLTS' actual measures of job openings, previously criticized by other authors. Focusing on the U.S. experience in and around the Great Recession, our main finding is that the job ladder stopped working in the GR and has not yet fully resumed.