Decomposing Changes in Agricultural Producer Prices
提出一种分解农业生产者价格变动的方法,基于世界银行程序,纳入贸易价格、汇率和贸易政策,并扩展了政策效应分析、不完全传导效应及变量交互效应,适用于巴西、中国和南非等新兴市场。
Abstract This article develops a method for decomposing changes in agricultural producer prices. The method builds on a procedure used by the World Bank, with the main variables in the decomposition being trade prices, exchange rates and trade policies. We expand on the World Bank decomposition procedure by broadening the analysis of policy effects, adding the effect from incomplete transmission of changes in trade prices and exchange rates to producer prices, and handling the effect on prices from interactions between variables as they change simultaneously. Decomposition results are presented for various commodities for the major emerging markets of Brazil, China and South Africa.