Budget balance through revenue or spending adjustments?
利用美国1792-1988年的预算数据，通过误差修正模型分析发现，约50-65%的减税导致的赤字和65-70%的增支导致的赤字是通过后续削减支出来消除的，其余则通过增税消除。
The paper provides a historical perspective on the issue of whether budget deficits are typically eliminated by increased taxes or by reduced spending. By examining U.S. budget data from 1792–1988, I conclude that about 50–65% of all deficits due to tax cuts and about 65–70% of all deficits due to higher government spending have been eliminated by subsequent spending cuts, while the remainder was eliminated by subsequent tax increases. In contrast to previous studies, the empirical analysis uses error-correction models in a way that the intertemporal budget constraint is imposed in the estimation stage.