Agricultural Exports and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach
使用42个发展中国家的面板数据，通过协整方法估计农业出口对GDP的弹性为0.07，非农业出口弹性为0.13，并发现出口导向增长假说成立，但不同收入组存在结构性差异。
Abstract This paper quantifies the contribution of agricultural exports to economic growth in developing countries. We estimate the relationship between GDP and agricultural and non‐agricultural exports for 42 countries using panel cointegration methods. Results show that a long‐run relationship exists, the agricultural export elasticity of GDP is 0.07 whereas that of non‐agricultural exports is 0.13, and total exports Granger‐cause GDP, which supports the export‐led growth hypothesis. Structural differences exist in the relationship by broad income group. Balanced export‐promotion polices are implied for the poorest countries, but, for those with higher incomes, higher economic growth is achieved from non‐agricultural exports.