Trade and Uncertainty
研究为何国际贸易对经济冲击反应剧烈，提出不确定性冲击导致企业大幅削减外国订单，从而放大贸易波动，并用美国数据解释2008-2009年贸易大崩溃。
We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. Firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers. In response to an uncertainty shock firms disproportionately cut orders of foreign inputs due to higher fixed costs. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly compiled US import and industrial production data. Our results help to explain the Great Trade Collapse of 2008–2009.