Stability and Instability in the Debt-Income Relationship
研究美国非金融债务与GNP的趋势关系，并基于实证讨论当代金融不稳定的根源，特别关注联邦政府赤字问题。
Over the recent past, economists have increasingly pursued research on the question of financial instability and financial crisis, reflecting, of course, the growing seriousness of these issues in the real world, both domestically and internationally. One important aspect of this research has been the effort to establish a set of empirical relationships through which tendencies toward instability and crisis may be accurately observed, and thus better understood. This paper has a dual purpose: first, to consider empirical measures of financial activity in the U.S. economy, specifically the trend relationship between nonfinancial debt and GNP; then, based on the empirical discussion, to offer an approach toward understanding some of the sources of contemporary financial instability. In the latter aim, I pay particular attention to the issue of federal government deficits.